THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC EXPENDIRURE AND PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH DECLINE

Dalibor Šare; Danko Kosorić; Dejan Tošev

doi:10.59864/Oditor82503DS

Autori

Dalibor Šare Belgrade banking Academy Author https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8366-7207
Danko Kosorić Belgrade banking academy Author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9964-987X
Dejan Tošev Belgrade banking academy Author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1542-7672

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59864/Oditor82503DS

Ključne reči:

privredni rast, javna potrošnja, javni dug, jugoistočna Evropa

Apstrakt

Ova studija analizira uticaj javne potrošnje na ekonomski rast u zemljama jugoistočne Evrope, koristeći podatke za Srbiju, Bosnu i Hercegovinu, Hrvatsku, Crnu Goru, Severnu Makedoniju, Rumuniju, Bugarsku, Albaniju i Grčku u periodu od 2005. do 2021. godine. Empirijska analiza sprovedena je koristeći Prais-Winsten regresiju sa panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) kako bi se ispravila heteroskedastičnost, autokorelacija i cross-sectional dependence. Rezultati pokazuju da povećanje javne potrošnje pozitivno utiče na ekonomski rast, dok visok nivo javnog duga negativno utiče na rast. Međutim, interakcioni efekat između javne potrošnje i visokog duga nije statistički značajan, što sugeriše da javna potrošnja u zemljama sa visokim dugom nema izražen negativan efekat na ekonomski rast. Ovi nalazi ukazuju na potrebu za pažljivijim razmatranjem fiskalnih politika u zemljama sa visokim dugom, posebno u kontekstu vojne potrošnje.

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