THE IMPACT OF TAX BURDEN LEVELS ON LONG-TERM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Dragan Avramović; Dalibor Šare

doi:10.59864/Oditor32601MJ

Autori

Dragan Avramović Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade, Serbia Author https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7835-195X
Dalibor Šare Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade, Serbia Author https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8366-7207

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59864/Oditor32601MJ

Ključne reči:

poresko opterećenje, ekonomski rast, panel model

Apstrakt

Ovaj rad istražuje komparativne dugoročne efekte nivoa poreskog opterećenja na ekonomsku aktivnost u razvijenim i tranzicionim evropskim zemljama. Metodološki pristup zasniva se na teoriji endogenog rasta, koja uključuje ekonomske, društvene i političke varijable radi simuliranja postojanja dugoročne veze između poreske politike i ekonomskog rasta, sa ciljem identifikovanja preporuka poreske politike koje podržavaju održivi rast. Procena dugoročne veze između nivoa poreskog opterećenja i ekonomske aktivnosti sprovedena je korišćenjem godišnjih podataka iz balansiranih panel modela koji obuhvataju 16 razvijenih i 15 tranzicionih evropskih zemalja u periodu od 1995. do 2019. godine. U analizi je primenjen dinamički panel model procenjen metodom diferencijalnog generalizovanog metoda momenata (Difference Generalized Method of Moments – GMM). Empirijski nalazi ukazuju da je uticaj poreskog opterećenja na dugoročnu ekonomsku aktivnost nelinearan i statistički značajan u obe grupe zemalja. Rezultati sugerišu da održivi ekonomski rast zahteva smanjenje nivoa poreskog opterećenja.

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