DVOSMERNA VEZA INFLACIJE I INFLACIONE NEIZVESNOSTI: SLUČAJ SRBIJE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59864/Oditor12501SMKljučne reči:
inflacija, inflaciona neizvesnost, GARCH modeli, Friedman-Ball hipoteza, Cukierman-Meltzer hipotezaApstrakt
Cilj ovog istraživanja jeste analiza odnosa između inflacije i inflacione neizvesnosti na primer Srbije. Primenom GARCH modela ocenjena je inflaciona neizvesnost pri čemu se kao najbolji model pokazao EGARH model. Rezultati Granger-ovog testa kauzalnosti između inflacije i inflacione neizvesnosti su pokazala da inflacija utiče na rast inflacione neizvesnosti i da rast inflacije dovodi do rasta neizvesnosti , čime je potrvđena hipoteza Friedman-Ball-a. S druge strane, rezultati su pokazali da inflaciona neizvesnost utiče na rast inflacije i da rast inflacione neizvesnosti utiče na porast inflacije što je u skladu sa Cukierman i Meltzer-ovom hipotezom.
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